US Navy blockade has cost Iran $4.8B in oil revenue. Working strategy or escalation pipeline?

The 2026 US Navy Iran blockade has trapped 31 tankers carrying 53 million barrels in the Gulf, and Pentagon estimates put Iran's lost oil revenue at $4.8 billion. Is this Cuba-1962-style coercion that ends in a deal, or is this the slow-burn intro to a regional war?